Kinship analysis with rigor that holds up in court.
A forensic kinship analysis uses a Likelihood Ratio to evaluate whether the genetic profiles of two or more people fit a proposed relationship better than its absence. Identicore ADN handles paternity, maternity and extended pedigrees, with autosomal, Y-STR and X-STR markers.
The challenge
Real cases are rarely a mother, father and child trio. One parent is missing, grandparents, siblings or uncles must be used, and families have structures a simple calculation cannot handle.
On top of that, a result that ignores mutations, null alleles or population structure can exclude a true relative or overstate the strength of the evidence in court.
How we solve it
- 01
Visual pedigree
The family is drawn, with any topology, and the hypotheses to compare are defined.
- 02
Complete calculation
General pedigree engine (Elston-Stewart) with Balding-Nichols θ correction, per-marker mutation rates, null alleles and linked loci.
- 03
Paternal and maternal lines
Y-STR and X-STR haplotypes when autosomal markers are not enough to tell relationships apart.
- 04
Probability of paternity
W as a Bayesian posterior with a configurable prior, never reported as 100%.
- 05
Report with verbal scale
LR, log₁₀(LR) and an ISFG, ICMP, ENFSI or custom scale, with a population coverage report.
Frequently asked questions
What is a Likelihood Ratio in a kinship analysis?
It is a ratio that compares how likely the observed profiles are if the proposed relationship exists versus if it does not. A value above 1 supports the relationship; a value below 1 supports its absence.
What is the probability of paternity (W)?
It is the posterior probability of the relationship, calculated from the Likelihood Ratio and a prior probability set by the laboratory. Identicore ADN never reports it as 100%, because no genetic result is absolute.
Can the analysis be done if one parent is missing?
Yes. The pedigree can include grandparents, siblings, uncles or other reference relatives, and the engine calculates the Likelihood Ratio for any family structure.
How are mutations taken into account?
With marker-specific mutation rates, based on validated sources and managed by the laboratory, so a true relative is not wrongly excluded.
What are Y-STR and X-STR markers for?
Y-STRs follow the paternal line and X-STRs add information from the maternal line; they help distinguish relationships that autosomal markers alone cannot separate well.
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